Forecast accuracy, made clear

The old card showed one cryptic “79% accuracy” badge. It actually grades the 8am morning baseline ($2,478), not the live $1,980 number sitting right next to it. Below: the current card for reference, then two ways to fix it. Numbers are illustrative mock data in the same shape the API already returns.

Current — what's live now
Projected Sales
79% accuracy
$1,980
today
Morning prediction: $2,478
Actual: $1,21882% of day
This Week
$16.7k
This Month
$70.7k
This Year
$854.1k

↑ The “79% accuracy” gives no hint of what it measures, over what window, or that it’s grading a different number than the one shown.

Option A — inline labeled strip (everything visible)
Projected Sales
$1,980
projected today
8am forecast was $2,478 · revised down as the day came in slow
$1,218 booked so far82% of the day done
How accurate is this forecast?
Yesterday predicted $2,310 → landed $2,108
91%
Morning forecast 8am number vs final · 30-day avg
79%
Live projection this revised number vs final · 30-day avg
86%
This Week
$16.7k
This Month
$70.7k
This Year
$854.1k

↑ All three numbers always visible, each with a one-line plain-English caption. Taller card, zero clicks.

Option B — compact badge, tap to expand
Projected Sales
accuracy ▾
$1,980
projected today
8am forecast was $2,478 · revised down as the day came in slow
$1,218 booked so far82% of the day done

How accurate is this forecast?

Yesterday $2,310 predicted → $2,108 landed
91%
Morning forecast 8am number vs final · 30-day avg
79%
Live projection this number vs final · 30-day avg
86%
The live projection (86%) is the accuracy of the $1,980 number above — it self-corrects through the day. The morning forecast (79%) only grades the early 8am guess.
This Week
$16.7k
This Month
$70.7k
This Year
$854.1k

↑ Card stays compact like today; one tap reveals the full breakdown. Tap the “accuracy ▾” chip above to try it.

Plain-English: what each number means

Yesterday  Did the model nail yesterday? The single most recent predicted-vs-actual. Your “daily accuracy.”

Morning forecast  On an average day over the last 30 days, how close was the 8am baseline to where the day finished? This is today’s “79%.” It’s blind to how the day actually unfolds.

Live projection  On an average day over the last 30 days, how close was the continuously-revised number (the big $1,980) to the final total? This is the accuracy of what you’re actually looking at — and it’s normally higher, because it learns from the day as it goes.

All three are 100 − average error. Freak days (way above/below) are excluded so one weird day can’t swing it. A run of soft days like this Friday is what pulls the morning number down.